This article has been translated from the original Georgian, written by David Adeishvili and found at https://www.sustainability.ge/namakhvani.
Namakhvani Cascade - a totally unsustainable project
Political economy assessment
Facts and Figures : The total planned capacity of the two Namakhvani Cascade HPPs (at Namokhvani and Tvishi) is 433 MW, with an estimated output of 1.6 billion kWh.
The top surface of the reservoirs is planned to be 100 + 510 = 610 ha, comprising a territory 30 km long and approximately 200 meters wide. For comparison, think of a strip of width of two football fields from Tbilisi to Rustavi. The height of the dams will be 60 and 105 meters.
It is not known exactly, however, how many hectares of land in total will be submerged and become unusable by the damming process - according to some data, it will be more than 1000 hectares. This area will include agricultural lands, forests, 19 cultural heritage sites, and 13 archeological sites. 7 settlements will be affected, of which 3 will be totally submerged. 104 families will be resettled.
Endangered species of sturgeon and the unique Tvishi viticulture microzone - both protected by international conventions - are at risk.
4 seasonal power plants have already been installed on the Rioni, including the 4 stations of the Vartsikhe diversion cascade. Now, in addition to this, the Oni and Namakhvani cascades are planned, which means that a power plant will be located on average every 15 kilometers along the river in the section from Glola to Samtredia, including all dams and diversion pipes. This is expected to create an excess of cumulative negative effects on the environment of the Rioni Valley.
The Namakhvani project was rejected in the 1980s.
In 2019, Georgia consumed a total of 12,767 million kWh, of which 12.7% was imported and 75% of the production was generated by hydropower plants (Source: Esco.ge).
Violations and Transparency: The company Enka Renewables, in agreement with the government, has begun preparatory construction work on the HPP project without a final EIA decision or the necessary information and research. The court did not consider the lawsuit filed by the non-governmental organization "Green Alternative". Hence many questions remain unanswered.
Ignoring and suppressing protests: For more than a month, locals have been carrying out a continuous occupation and protest, day and night, against the construction. They have been disrupted and dispersed by the police; the government refuses to meet them and has no communication with the general public about this project.
Energy Myths:
1. "Georgia has untapped surplus hydro resources." If we evaluate these "resources" in terms of basin management and sustainable development, it turns out that the size of water resources is minimal and mainly suitable for small hydropower plants.
2. "Georgia needs energy independence." If we are talking about self-sufficiency in electricity, then we already today have achieved 90% of this, which can not be said about any other consumer product in Georgia. Achieving this “goal” would be much more inefficient and costly than attempting to address, for example, issues of self-sufficiency in wheat, oil, or meat.
3.
"Hydropower is cheap." In fact, this energy is very expensive, if we
take into account all the economic consequences and the negative externalities (non-monetized associated costs) which we will need to internalize.
4. "There will be a shortage of electricity." The demand for electricity in Georgia is growing directly proportionally to GDP growth, but at a much slower pace. The demand for new generation will be less than expected in the future if we take into account the considerable potential for reducing the intensity of electricity consumption in Georgia (increasing energy efficiency) and the opportunities for diversified imports on a seasonal basis. In the coming years, GDP decline and lower growth rates are expected in Georgia. This gives us a chance to reorganize the electricity sector, including the consideration of alternative sources and system modernization.
A priori evaluation of the project: International practice confirms the instability of large hydropower plants - their economic, social, ecological and technical (geological, seismic, and hydrological) dubious nature.
Large hydropower plants are a thing of the past in the world of development. Not only are large hydropower plants no longer being built in Western Europe and North America, they are even being selectively dismantled to restore the damaged environment.
Cost-benefit analysis: The cost-benefit analysis method has not been used to economically evaluate an investment project of this magnitude (more than $700 million), which would shed light on many questions and make decisions easier.
For example, no one is counting on what revenue will be lost from the export potential Tvishi viticulture and winemaking, as well as losses from the tourism perspective. The ecological and socio-cultural damage caused to the country by the implementation of the project has not been assessed.
On the other hand, a maximum of 1600 million kWh of electricity per year is at stake for the state. For comparison, in 2019, about the same amount was imported - 1626 million kWh of electricity, the value of which amounted to 67.3 million USD (0.9% of total imports of Georgia). For comparison, more than this amount - 67.4 million USD was paid to Georgia in 2018 only for the import of poultry meat, the replacement of which with local production would not be a big problem.
Political conclusion: What is happening is the exploitation and destruction of Georgia's common natural "green capital" and socio-cultural environment by foreign financial capital and local private interests, in conjunction with the negligence and support of a corrupt bureaucracy and the bribery and manipulation of a part of the local poor population.
Solution: Stop the project! Develop an energy strategy based on the principles of sustainable development and pursue appropriate policies.
Emphasis should be placed on wind and solar energy sources, energy efficiency, market decentralization, and the regulation, rehabilitation, and modernization of the generating systems. Temporarily (in the medium term) it is possible to start new capacities of thermal power plants.
Sources used
Esco.ge. (nd). Georgia Electricity Balance 2019 . Electricity Market Operator. https://esco.ge/files/data/Balance/energobalans_2019_geo.pdf
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